Modern systems science is about the structured relationships among objects and their connections that scientists perceive to be essential, as extracted from the complex messiness of total reality (and there is considerable metaphysical debate about what “total reality” is). By invoking systems selleck kinase inhibitor concepts scientists (e.g., physicists) can “predict” (really deduce from assumptions – there is no other

kind of deduction) logical consequences. Employing further presumptions (about the philosophically loaded issues involving the meaning of “time”) the systems scientist (e.g., the physicist) can equate the logical deduction from the antecedent to the consequent (“prediction”) to the state of the system at any past, present, or future moment in time, i.e., to say what the Earth (really the earth System) is, was, or will be. Substantive uniformitarianism (uniformities of kind, degree, rate, and state), which claims how the earth is supposed Epacadostat concentration to be, is logically

flawed, in that it states a priori part of what our scientific inquiries are meant to discover. In contrast, weaker forms of uniformitarianism (uniformities of methodology and process) were meant to provide regulative or guiding principles in regard to causal hypothesis generation. Such forms of uniformitarianism were not meant, in their original formulations, as means to predict (deduce) past or future system states. Uniformity of Law is a special case in that it makes substantive claim that is needed for all forms of science, notably physics, but this claim is merely one of parsimony (e.g., Goodman, 1967), another version which might claim that no extra, fancifull, or unknown causes need (or should) be invoked if known causes (those presently in operation and/or observed) will do the job. Prediction, in the sense of logical deduction (not in the sense of foretelling the future), is properly used in

Earth system science as a means of advancing scientific understanding. The goal of universal, necessary, and certain prediction may be to achieve the geoengineering of some future system state of the Anthropocene, if such a goal is deemed ethically acceptable by society. However, analytical prediction in systems science must always be regarded as a tool for advancing the continually developing state of understanding. As such, it is best combined with other tools for Gefitinib that quest. Knight and Harrison (2014) concluded that Earth’s past conditions, e.g., past interglacials, cannot provide exact analogs from which to predict (deduce) future conditions. However, this is because processes vary in their complex interactions with time, i.e., they evolve, and this occurs whether those processes are enhanced by human action or not. From a logical point of view, this is not a new problem that is uniquely associated with the Anthropocene; it has always been a logical defect with overly restrictive applications (generally substantive) of uniformitarian principles.