Cold-chain storage cost per dose was estimated using the 2012 WHO vaccine volume calculator [18]. This estimates that the cold chain costs for a 10-dose vial

is $0.03 per dose and 5-dose vials costs $0.05 per dose. The model specified in Eqs. (4) and (5) was used to depict two policy options: (1) offering IPV in 10-dose vials and (2) offering IPV in 5-dose vials. For each country and each policy option the model ran 1000 replications drawing independently from the statistical selleck distributions of session size for all of the various types of clinics in the country as specified in Eqs. (4) and (5). The baseline cost per dose of the vaccine was assumed to be $2.48 per dose in 10-dose vials, using the mean of the price range released by UNICEF [19], and $2.98 per dose in 5-dose vials, which is a procurement price gap of $0.50. As no price information is available for IPV 5-dose vials, we carried out a univariate sensitivity

analysis to vary the price gap from zero to a $1.00 per dose between 10- and 5-dose vials. Our study found that session size varied significantly within and across all four countries included in the analysis. Table 3 lists PI3K inhibitor the median session size and 25th to 75th percentile for different types of healthcare centers in Bangladesh, India (Uttar Pradesh), Mozambique, and Uganda. Depending on whether the clinic setting was urban, rural, outreach or fixed, the median session size varied between 3 and 15 children. To predict session size in different clinical settings, session size field data were used for statistical distribution fitting. Fig. 1 shows the Akaike Information Criteria (AICs) score associated with the best fitting parameters not within each statistical distribution family—the lower the AIC, the better the fit. The negative binomial family offered the greatest number of best-fit results compared to the other three families, though as seen in Fig. 1, the AIC score of the second best-fit did not

differ greatly from the best-fit in some cases. The best-fit distributions were parameterized for each clinic type in each country and applied in the calculation of vaccine wastage. Wastage in both 10-dose vials and 5-dose vials presentations was calculated, indicating a lower wastage rate for using 5-dose vials. Table 4 shows that by switching from 10-dose vials to 5-dose vials, the wastage rate was reduced in all four countries. While using 5-dose vials produced a lower wastage rate, it also triggered an increase in the per-dose fully loaded cost, which included the procurement costs, cold-chain costs, and cost of open vial wastage. Fig. 2 shows the distributions of the present values of fully loaded per dose costs in a 10-year analytical horizon for IPV with a procurement price of $2.48 per dose in 10-dose vials and a price gap of $0.50 per dose in 5-dose vials in Bangladesh, India (Uttar Pradesh), Mozambique, and Uganda.